Weather outlook for Groundsman/Greenkeepers
3 rd -10th May National summary
We’ll have quite a lot of cloud and some showery bursts of rain today. The coming days will have plenty of dry weather and temperatures could become warm by mid-week.
Later in the week forecast detail becomes uncertain and we could see showers breaking out by bank holiday Friday.
Sunday begins with cloud and showers across southern and south-eastern parts of the country. In the north there’s plenty of dry weather and that’s where we’ve got the best of the sunny spells this morning.
Through the rest of the day we’ll see the rain in the south dying out and skies will brighten at times but through Wales, the Midlands, northern England and Scotland more showers are likely to break out this afternoon.
The driest weather should be in the south and south-west.
Temperatures range from 10C to 17C – it will feel quite cool under the showers but will feel warm when the sun comes out.
Keep checking GWV rain radar to see what’s happening with todays showers.
Tonight showers could persist across eastern Scotland and north-east England but many places will become dry with clear spells. It will be quite a cold night and there could be a touch of frost in the Scottish glens.
Tomorrow we have more showers across northern and eastern parts of the country through the morning but they should generally die out by afternoon with most parts ending the day with increasing amounts of sunshine.
A lot of uncertainty this week
On Tuesday we could have some heavy rain across the far south-west but the rain should turn lighter as the day progresses. Further north most regions stay dry with sunny spells.
By Wednesday the whole country should be dry with plenty of sunshine and that will allow temperatures to become warm or perhaps very warm in the south.
Mostly dry and warm conditions continue through Thursday but by bank holiday Friday heavy showers or longer spells of rain could break out.
Unsettled conditions may continue into next weekend with more heavy showers and spells of rain at times though forecast detail is very uncertain at this stage.
To see more weather details go to –https://www.gavsweathervids.com/daily-uk-weather-forecast-summary.php
UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance: May To July 2020
[Updated – 27/04/2020]
The excellent UK Met Office Contingency Planners Guidance was released last week.
This update covers the three monthly period May to July 2020. You can read the UK Met Office Contingency Planners Guidance for yourself here
For tonight’s blog update we’re going to review the UKMO contingency planners guidance for May to July 2020.
The headline for this months update is that a warmer than average May and May to July is expected:
For May and May-June-July as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures.
The “context” part of the guidance gives us more detail:
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase and is likely to remain so throughout this forecast period. It is therefore not expected to have a significant effect on UK weather.
Sea surface temperatures are below average across the North Atlantic Ocean west of the UK. This pattern has been linked to greater incidence of high pressure in summer, implying increased chances of higher-than-normal temperatures in the Outlook period.
For May and May-June-July as a whole, the Met Office long-range prediction system shows an increase in the likelihood of high pressure near the UK. While confidence is typically lower at this time of year than in winter, there is better agreement between prediction systems from centres around the world than is usual at this time of year. High pressure would lead to more settled weather for the UK and, combined with the warming climate, this means a greater-than-usual chance of above-average temperatures.
Nevertheless, cooler-than-normal conditions remain a possibility, albeit with a smaller likelihood. While the relatively high probability of our warmest forecast category does suggest that the chance of spells of very hot weather is increased compared to usual, it does not imply extreme or unseasonal weather throughout the whole 3-month period. Indeed, the Outlook does not identify weather for a particular day or week. The increased likelihood of this category could mean more days with temperatures that are above average to a more modest degree. Above-average temperatures can also arise from a range of types of weather, not just sunny and dry conditions.
So an increased likelihood of high pressure bringing us warm or potentially very warm weather in the next three month forecast period but how is precipitation looking?
The headline from the precipitation part of the guidance is that a drier than average May and an average May to July is expected:
For May, below-average precipitation is moderately more likely than above-average precipitation. For May-June-July as a whole, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation.
The “context” part of the guidance adds more “flesh to the bones”
There are fewer global drivers of UK weather patterns at this time of year compared to the winter, so predictability of precipitation amounts tends to be lower. This means there are typically only small shifts in the likelihood of above- and below- average precipitation.
Despite that, as discussed in the Outlook for temperature, the confidence in signals from long-range systems from global prediction centres is higher than normal for this time of year. These signals suggest a greater-than-usual chance of high pressure near the UK, and thereby an increased likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions.
For May, and May-June-July as a whole, below-average rainfall is more likely than above-average rainfall reflecting the greater likelihood of above-average pressure. There remains a realistic chance of above-average rainfall, however, albeit less likely. In addition, spells of more unsettled, wet and windy weather are not precluded even if the Outlook period is drier-than-normal overall.
So overall a warm and dry outlook with quite a lot of high pressure influences taking us through late spring to early summer. So unsettled weather at times but a warm/dry start to summer 2020?
Next months update will take us through the full June to August – summer 2020 – period.
Gavin
For more blogs and weather data, check out my blog- https://www.gavsweathervids.com/
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